Near-term research views on EUR/USD lean bearish, even as one strategic call stands out as firmly bullish on a multi-year horizon.
One camp of analysts sees the pair testing 1.14 soon, with dollar momentum after the Fed meeting doing most of the work. The euro side, in their read, offers little near-term support despite better commodity terms of trade for the eurozone. A second strand of recently published research frames the FOMC outcome as "unambiguously dollar positive," pointing to the hawkish surprise in the Fed's dot plot and a persistent inflation-fighting stance as structural tailwinds for the dollar.
A contrarian thread takes the other side on a longer horizon, arguing EUR/USD reaches 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027. That view rests on gradual dollar diversification and an easing of Middle East tensions.
The disagreement is largely about timeframe: the bearish calls are tactical and cyclical, while the bullish case is a multi-year mean-reversion thesis. The real question is how durable Fed-driven dollar strength proves to be.