Published research this week leans uniformly bullish on the euro versus the dollar — the disagreement is about scale and timing, not direction.
On the structural side, several analyst camps see EUR/USD grinding from around 1.05 today toward 1.17–1.22 over 2026–2027. The published case rests on a narrowing US-eurozone rate gap, fading European energy risks, pent-up euro-area investment demand, and a gradual erosion of dollar dominance. One strand of research argues the euro's resilience to geopolitical shocks — and limited safe-haven flows into the dollar — supports a steady drift toward 1.20 by 2027.
On the tactical side, researchers flag 1.15–1.16 as the near-term level to watch. One view ties a move back toward 1.16 to progress on a US-Iran deal easing energy pressure; another argues 1.15 could come back into play if the ECB delivers another hike, even with the Fed still dollar-supportive.
The contrast is horizon, not direction: tactical calls hinge on specific catalysts, while the structural calls lean on macro normalization playing out over years.