Published research is split on EUR/USD — but the divide is about timing, not direction.
In the near term, one camp of analysts argues the pair drifts toward 1.14–1.15 this summer. Their case: persistent dollar strength, weak eurozone activity (especially Germany), and the view that even a hawkish 25bp ECB hike offers only limited support as energy prices climb and markets test the Fed's tightening resolve. A related strand of recent research frames it through central bank divergence — the ECB seen as nearly out of room while the Fed keeps going, which favors the dollar.
The published longer-horizon view is the opposite. A separate body of research projects EUR/USD at 1.21 by late 2026 and 1.25 by late 2027, citing gradual dollar diversification, Europe's emerging safe-haven appeal, stronger fiscal and structural credibility, and evidence the euro now trades more like a safe asset during stress episodes.
The takeaway from these views: dollar strength dominates the tactical window; euro strength is the strategic call, conditional on geopolitical calm.