Published research on EUR/USD is split — and the split is mostly about time horizon, not a clean directional call.
On the bearish side, one camp of analysts argues the euro is vulnerable if US payrolls come in strong, contending markets have overpriced ECB hikes (three are priced; these researchers see that as excessive) and that rate differentials now favor the dollar. A related published view flags EUR/USD already trading below levels implied by oil, with a break under 1.160 possible if US-Iran talks stall. A more structural bearish thread frames the euro as a low-yielding funding currency whose rallies should be faded, citing persistent euro area lags on yield, growth, and equities.
On the bullish side, some recently-published views hold a modestly bullish cyclical stance into summer, targeting 1.180 on expected ECB hawkishness and Middle East de-escalation. A longer-horizon research case projects EUR/USD drifting to 1.17–1.18 through 2026 and 1.20–1.22 by end-2027, driven by softer US rates and growth convergence.
The real disagreement: structural euro pessimism versus a strategic dollar-softening call.