Published research this week flags elevated downside risk for EUR/USD, with analysts arguing the pair could test 1.150 ahead of next week's central bank meeting.
The case rests on two pressures. One camp of researchers points to persistent Middle East tensions — including ongoing US-Iran military exchanges — as fueling a broadly risk-off mood that is funneling safe-haven flows into the dollar. At the same time, the published consensus highlights the eurozone's weak PMIs and a fragile growth backdrop, which leave the euro with little fundamental support.
The view isn't unconditional. Some recently-published analysis stresses that if meaningful ceasefire progress emerges before the policy meeting, the downside pressure on the euro could ease quickly. In other words, geopolitics is doing much of the work here — and a shift in that backdrop is the most plausible circuit-breaker.
Worth watching: headline risk out of the Middle East and any softening in incoming eurozone data could both move the pair before the meeting itself.