EUR/USD: research is split by time horizon, not direction.
The published near-term view leans bearish. Several research notes this week argue the pair is skewed toward 1.1500, citing weaker eurozone PMI data pointing to contraction, an ECB hiking cycle now priced for just one more move, and the likelihood of FOMC speakers reinforcing US tightening expectations. The euro is already lagging — sitting near the bottom of the G10 performance table.
A separate strand of analysis adds a geopolitical layer, flagging reports that Russia has asked the US to evacuate diplomats from Kyiv as a potential catalyst for further euro weakness.
The contrarian thread is strategic, not tactical. One multi-year outlook published recently projects EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027, built on sticky inflation and a structural move away from the dollar — though it's explicitly conditional on Middle East tensions easing.
So the disagreement is less about direction than about horizon and scenario: near-term catalysts versus a multi-year regime shift.