EUR/USD: the bull and bear cases aren't actually fighting each other — they're operating on different clocks.
On the constructive side, one strand of published research lays out a multi-year bull case, targeting 1.22 by June 2027. The argument rests on tighter European monetary policy, an upward revision to European inflation expectations (to 3.1%), and a higher projected ECB deposit rate that widens the rate gap in the euro's favour versus the dollar.
A contrarian thread of recent research takes the other side in the near term, flagging weak European manufacturing data and the risk of further disappointment from upcoming confidence surveys and negotiated wage releases. The key caveat in that view: if wage growth fails to support services inflation, downside pressure on EUR/USD could intensify.
The takeaway analysts seem to converge on, even implicitly: this is a horizon mismatch, not a real disagreement. Near-term euro softness on soft data can coexist with a longer-run appreciation path if ECB normalisation plays out as the bulls expect.