EUR/USD: published research is tilting bearish, with no notable pushback in today's coverage.
The bear case, as researchers frame it, rests on renewed strength in US Treasury yields. One camp of analysts argues the dollar's brief pause is over and that elevated yields will keep pressure on the pair to the downside.
A parallel thread of recent research puts numbers on it: the risk this week skews toward a retest of 1.160 rather than a recovery to 1.170, with geopolitical uncertainty reinforcing the downside.
There's one mild offset in the published views — ECB hawkishness, needed to anchor the long end of Europe's yield curve, is seen as providing a floor that limits excessive euro weakness. But even the analysts making that point stop well short of calling it a bullish catalyst.
Net takeaway from the research consensus: a floor, not a turnaround. The path of least resistance for EUR/USD remains lower while US yields stay firm.