EUR/USD: the research is split by time horizon, not by direction — tactically bearish, strategically bullish.
On the near-term downside, several recently published analyses flag that EUR/USD has broken below key support around 1.1650/1.1580, with higher US yields, safe-haven dollar demand, and risk-off flows weighing on the pair. One bearish thread warns of a slide toward 1.14 if 1.1700 isn't reclaimed. Another camp points to weak eurozone fundamentals — soft activity surveys, China spillovers, and energy-driven stagflation risk — as reasons to avoid going long the euro right now.
Looking further out, the published consensus tilts the other way. Researchers argue the dollar will gradually weaken as global investors diversify away from it, with forecasts clustering around 1.20 by year-end, 1.21 by late 2026, and 1.22–1.25 over the following years. The bullish case rests on euro-area resilience, normalization of risk premia, and an expected ECB hike paired with a Fed cut into December.
The takeaway from this week's research: timeframe, not direction, is doing most of the disagreeing.