Published research this week is tilting bearish on EUR/USD, with both explicit pair calls pointing lower and the macro backdrop reinforcing that lean.
The core argument from one camp of analysts: rate differentials are turning against the euro. Rising US yields have widened the two-year EUR/USD swap spread, eroding the cushion the euro built up earlier this year. Researchers in that group flag 1.1570 as the next downside level worth watching.
A separate thread of recent research zeroes in on the ECB itself. Markets are pricing roughly two-and-a-half hikes, but some recently published views doubt the central bank can deliver that given Europe's growth headwinds. A dovish repricing of ECB expectations, the argument goes, would add another leg of pressure on the euro.
The longest-horizon call comes from a published 12-month target of 1.12, anchored on continued US economic outperformance, higher US yields, and sustained capital inflows into US assets.