EUR/USD spent the week caught between a bearish near-term tape and a still-constructive multi-year story.
Early in the window, the published research was split. One camp flagged weak eurozone activity, energy vulnerability and firm US inflation as capping the pair below 1.18, with risk of a slip under 1.17. A separate set of multi-year forecasts kept pointing higher — 1.20 to 1.22 into 2026–2027 — built on capital rotating out of the dollar, narrowing rate differentials, and Europe's push to broaden the euro's role in reserves and digital payments.
By the second half of the week, the tactical consensus tilted more decisively bearish. After hotter US PPI and producer-price prints pulled forward Fed hike expectations, several research desks flagged a technical break below 1.170 opening a path to 1.16, downgraded second-half targets into the 1.13–1.15 area, and ranked the euro the weakest G10 currency on systematic signals. The longer-horizon bullish case wasn't abandoned — just pushed further out.