Published research on EUR/USD is split mainly by time horizon, not by genuine disagreement: the near-term consensus leans bearish on the euro, while a longer-run constructive case survives if global growth recovers.
On the bearish side, one camp of analysts points to deepening Eurozone pessimism, weak euro momentum, and a decisive shift in relative equity performance toward US outperformance, with H2 targets cut to 1.13–1.15. A separate tactical view argues negative European data surprises and attractive carry favor short-euro put structures, with a stop above 1.1850. Another recently-published thread highlights that a break below 1.170, alongside a wider EUR/USD rate-swap gap, removes key support and opens a path toward 1.160 in the coming days.
On the strategic horizon, some researchers argue EUR/USD above 1.20 is "entirely possible" later this year if global growth resumes and US risk diversification returns. A similar multi-quarter view sees the pair climbing from 1.05 to 1.17–1.20 by Q3 2026 to early 2027, driven by Fed easing and euro-area stabilization.