EUR/USD: published research is split — but the split is mostly about timeframe, not direction.
On the near-term bearish side, analysts point to stronger-than-expected US producer price data lifting Fed rate-hike expectations and keeping the dollar bid. A separate strand of recent research flags cyclical headwinds for the euro over the coming months: eurozone stagnation, fiscal slippage, weak household income, energy deficits, the Middle East conflict, and still-elevated financing costs.
On the bullish side, one published forecast path targets EUR/USD at 1.17 in 2025 and 1.20 across 2026–2027, anchored to an expected narrowing of US–eurozone rate differentials and a less hawkish Fed. Other recently-published views echo this, noting the euro's recovery toward $1.17 has been supported by elevated eurozone yields and expectations of further ECB tightening.
The takeaway researchers seem to converge on: near-term dollar strength can coexist with a medium-term euro recovery as rate differentials compress.