Published research this week is leaning bearish on EUR/USD, with the directional calls pointing lower in the near term.
Researchers argue European structural headwinds — energy dependency, political instability, and a technically heavy chart below 1.1650 — are the primary drivers of euro downside. A separate analytical thread flags upside risks to oil prices and a muted euro risk-reversal profile as keeping the pair biased lower. Another camp attributes dollar strength specifically to hotter-than-expected US inflation pulling forward Fed rate-hike expectations and widening rate differentials in the dollar's favour.
Where the published views diverge is mostly scenario-based, not substantive. One analytical track carries two offsetting cases: a tactical downside bias if oil keeps rising, and a conditional upside call only if ECB communication turns clearly hawkish on a June hike. The base case across the research consensus still leans bearish; the euro-positive scenario is explicitly contingent on hawkish ECB messaging actually materialising.