Published research on EUR/USD looks split — but the split is mostly about timeframe, not fundamentals.
On the strategic view, one camp of analysts argues EUR/USD grinds higher from 1.17 to around 1.21 by mid-2027 and 1.22 by mid-2028. The reasoning: modest ECB tightening to lean against inflation, energy-cost pressure on Eurozone growth continuing to fade, and a structural rotation of global capital toward pro-growth currencies.
A more cautious near-term thread of recent research pushes the other way. These views see the euro capped below 1.180 and likely retesting 1.170, citing fragile Eurozone risk sentiment, ECB hawkishness that may not be enough to protect the euro if equities correct, and stalled US–Iran negotiations. A softening ZEW sentiment survey is flagged as an added near-term drag.
The published research consensus is that these aren't really competing forecasts. The bearish case is explicitly conditional and short-dated; the bullish case is a multi-year structural call. Both can be right in sequence.