Published research is leaning structurally bullish on the euro, with a multi-year path toward 1.21–1.25 against the dollar emerging as the consensus view.
Several recently-published outlooks anchor that call on a slow erosion of dollar demand: portfolio diversification away from US assets, firmer euro-area growth, and the possibility of further ECB tightening if inflation stays sticky. One set of forecasts targets 1.21 by late 2026 and 1.25 by late 2027; another sees 1.21 by mid-2027 and 1.22 by mid-2028. A more structural thread argues the euro is positioned to reclaim global reserve and trade-settlement share as European policymakers build independent payment and clearing infrastructure — partly a response to Washington's use of dollar-based sanctions.
The lone near-term dissent is tactical: one camp of analysts argues weak eurozone data, sticky US inflation, and a hawkish Fed could keep EUR/USD capped below 1.18 this week, with risk toward 1.17.
The disagreement is really about horizon, not direction.