EUR/USD swung from early-week weakness to a firmer tone as oil and geopolitics took turns driving the tape.
Early in the week, published research leaned bearish: a stronger dollar, resilient US data, and higher oil prices were flagged as pushing the pair back below 1.17, with downside targets cited around 1.1655 and risk skewed toward 1.1630/50 on the eurozone's negative terms-of-trade hit from energy. One commodities-focused note warned that a natural gas spike risk was underappreciated.
By midweek and into the weekend, the published consensus shifted more constructive. Analysts pointed to de-escalating US-Iran tensions, softer dollar flows partly tied to yen intervention, and the prospect that the ECB and BoE could tighten ahead of a Fed inclined to ease. Several argued a finalized US-Iran deal plus a $10–15 drop in crude could push EUR/USD above 1.1800, with medium-term projections clustering at 1.18–1.21 by end-2026 and 1.25 by late 2027.
Range to watch per the week's research: 1.1650–1.1800.