Published research is lining up behind a stronger euro — though the paths there differ.
Two recent strands of analysis both project EUR/USD higher, but on different horizons. One camp of researchers makes a near-term, scenario-dependent case: if a US-Iran de-escalation pulls crude oil $10–15/bbl lower, the ECB and Bank of England would have room to tighten ahead of the Fed, unwinding the policy gap that has held the euro back. In that world, yield spreads and macro fundamentals retake the wheel from geopolitics.
A separate, more structural thread of published work doesn't hinge on any single catalyst. It argues medium-term rate convergence — a relatively firmer ECB against a Fed on an easing path — combined with persistent US external deficits and gradual dollar weakness, could lift EUR/USD from roughly 1.08–1.10 today toward 1.17–1.22 across 2025–2027.
The notable point: there's no directional disagreement in the research, only a split on timing and triggers. Event-driven and structural cases are pointing the same way.