Published research this week leans bullish on the euro against the dollar, with two distinct threads pointing to the same upside.
One camp of analysts argues that a clearer risk-on backdrop — driven by de-escalating US-Iran tensions and a softer tone from major central banks — is weighing on the dollar across the board, with the euro positioned as a prime beneficiary.
A separate strand of recent research frames the call as event-anchored: a finalised US-Iran deal would, in their view, compress risk premia, sustain the equity rally needed to offset short-term interest rate headwinds, and push EUR/USD decisively above 1.1800.
The published consensus across both views converges on the same catalyst — geopolitical de-escalation and improving global risk appetite — with the euro's existing momentum reinforcing the case for further upside.
As always, these are summaries of third-party research, not forecasts from us. Markets can turn quickly if the geopolitical backdrop shifts.