The euro is having a strong session against the dollar, trading back above 1.1700 and briefly touching 1.1740. The near-term tilt looks bullish, though one tactical view flags a downside scenario if upcoming data disappoints.
Two forces seem to be driving the move. First, broad dollar weakness — likely tied to suspected Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention in dollar/yen, which spilled into selling against other major currencies. Second, a more structural story: eurozone inflation expectations have climbed (market-implied pricing now near 3%), raising the odds the ECB delivers a precautionary rate hike in June. That gives the euro a fundamental tailwind beyond just dollar mechanics.
The consensus frames the pair as range-bound between roughly 1.1650 and 1.1800, with options pricing pointing to a possible test of those extremes around the next US jobs report.
Where views split is more about scenarios than genuine disagreement. The bullish cyclical case hinges on the ECB actually hiking in June. A more cautious take warns of a pullback toward 1.1700 if the ECB underwhelms or eurozone data keeps softening — and notes the euro has actually been lagging on the crosses, weighed down by weak data surprises and high energy costs. Both can coexist; they just operate on different horizons.