European rates research is leaning clearly hawkish ahead of the ECB's upcoming meeting.
The published research consensus this week is that the ECB hikes at Thursday's meeting, with short-term euro rates and the deposit rate drifting higher. None of the surveyed analyst commentary pushes back on the direction of travel.
Researchers point to a rising market-implied probability of a second ECB hike by September and shifting expectations for a third move into late 2026, dragging 3-month EURIBOR up with them. Several analyst notes anchor their calls to near-term ECB action, citing firmer core inflation and increasingly hawkish Governing Council rhetoric.
One camp frames a June hike as a pre-emptive "insurance" move against second-round energy effects and wage-price spiral risk, with a possible July follow-up — roughly 50bp of cumulative tightening this year, but not a full cycle. A more cyclical thread of research extends the tightening arc further, with one view pricing three 25bp hikes out to a 2.75% deposit rate by April 2027, conditional on Hormuz-related oil pressure easing.