Across markets today, published research keeps circling one theme: yields are leading, and everything else is repricing around them.
The most crowded call in recent research is that US 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated or push higher, now sitting above 5.3% at multi-decade highs. Analysts point to a mix of fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven competition for capital. A broad consensus also sees Brent crude holding above $100, with the Iran-related risk premium as the structural anchor — though a contrarian thread flags near-term softness as Gulf supply recovers, and some longer-horizon work pencils in a drift toward $80 by end-2027.
Researchers are near-unanimously bearish on the euro, citing French fiscal stress and the US rate advantage. On equities, the published consensus remains constructively cyclical, leaning on AI-led earnings.
Gold is the real split: one camp argues rising real yields and a firm dollar cap it, while another frames it as a safe-haven and debasement hedge supported by central bank buying. The divide is mostly tactical versus strategic.