Published research this week is converging on one story: a global yield surge driven by fiscal stress is now both the cause and the amplifier of cross-asset tension.
A broad consensus of analysts expects US 10-year Treasury yields to keep grinding higher, pointing to deficits, term premium repricing, AI-related supply, and sticky inflation. The same research camp is bearish on the euro, anchored in French fiscal credibility worries, widening French-German spreads, and softening eurozone fundamentals. On oil, several recently published views see Brent supported near-term by geopolitical supply risk, though a parallel thread argues fair value drops to $40–60 if Middle East tensions ease.
Gold is where researchers genuinely split. One camp frames it as a structural debasement and central-bank-demand story. A contrarian thread argues high real yields, a firmer dollar, and heavy technicals cap it near-term — a horizon disagreement more than a directional one.
A notable outlier view warns of an abrupt, 1987-style equity correction tied to AI complacency and fiscal strain, pairing that call with gold exposure and fading any Treasury rally.