Rising yields and a stronger dollar are the dominant cross-asset story, and most published research this week says duration is the enemy until either inflation cools or sovereign fiscal credibility is restored.
The consensus across recently published research is that US 10-year Treasury yields head higher, driven by deficits, sticky inflation, AI-related bond supply, and elevated term premia. A similar majority view sees the dollar grinding stronger and the euro weaker, with French fiscal stress cited as a key drag and French 10-year yields pushed to multi-decade highs. On oil, several research notes argue Brent faces near-term pressure from coordinated G7 reserve releases and recovering Middle East supply.
The contrarian threads are worth noting. One camp of analysts argues the bond sell-off is overdone and sees yields falling meaningfully over the next 12–18 months. A minority view is cyclically bullish on the euro. On gold, the published consensus leans bullish as a fiscal-dominance hedge, though a dissenting strand calls it heavy near-term. And one notable contrarian call defends French government bonds, arguing breakup risk is dramatically overpriced.