Rising US yields are the gravity well pulling every other asset into line today — bonds selling off, equities lower, and the dollar ripping higher.
The published research consensus is strikingly aligned on the dollar: multiple independent research shops see the Dollar Index grinding higher on Fed hawkishness, elevated front-end US yields, and US economic outperformance. EUR/USD is a near-unanimous sell across analysts, citing policy divergence, German political risk, and widening France–Germany bond spreads that some flag as a latent European fragmentation risk. On the US 10-year, most researchers see yields biased higher, with one year-end target lifted to 5.1% and an extreme scenario sketched at 5.25–5.50%.
Brent crude is where analysts genuinely split. One camp argues the war premium is fading as Saudi pipeline flows resume and US–Iran diplomacy progresses. A second camp says prices stay elevated while the Iran conflict persists and refined-product supply remains tight — a real horizon disagreement, not a soft one.
One contrarian thread worth flagging: triple-C credit spreads above 500bps and rising small-business bankruptcies are being highlighted as leading indicators of credit stress equities haven't priced.