Markets are caught in a reflationary squeeze right now, and the published research consensus is that it's reshaping every asset class at once.
The setup: oil's geopolitical risk premium and the AI infrastructure boom are firing simultaneously — pushing yields and the dollar higher while equities stay pinned near record highs. Researchers broadly agree US Treasury yields have further to climb, with sticky inflation and a Fed that isn't done. One camp of analysts flags the 2-year as the pressure point; a notable structural view argues long-end yields are justified higher by deficits and AI capital demand, calling Treasury buybacks "cosmetic."
On equities, recently published views converge bullishly on semiconductors and AI infrastructure — AMD, Intel, and ARM drawing repeated mentions on the back of Meta's demand wave.
Oil and the dollar split by horizon, not conviction: bearish if Middle East tensions ease, bullish if disruptions persist. Gold draws a broad bullish consensus, with published targets ranging from $4,560 to $5,000 on debasement-hedge logic — though a contrarian thread waits for a $3,500 pullback first.