Global bond selloff is the story driving every screen today: US 10-year yields testing 5%, the dollar breaking to multi-month highs, and rate-sensitive equities under visible stress. The published research consensus is that higher-for-longer rates are repricing every asset class at once — with oil above $100 acting as the accelerant.
Where recent research clusters:
- Treasury yields higher, driven by strong survey data, weak auction demand, hawkish Fed messaging, and energy-led inflation. This is the most crowded call on the tape.
- Dollar stronger, tied directly to widening yield differentials.
- Brent crude higher, with Strait of Hormuz supply risk and unresolved Iran tensions cited almost universally.
Where analysts split: on the yen, one camp argues USD/JPY keeps grinding higher absent intervention, while another holds that narrowing US–Japan yield gaps and a credible BoJ tightening cycle make this move more durable. On gold, tactical views flag rising real yields as a headwind, while longer-horizon research stays bullish on debasement and inflation protection.
A contrarian thread worth flagging: some recently published work argues extreme short positioning in Treasuries sets up a tactical squeeze — duration could work if yields simply stall, no dovish pivot required.