Today's published research points to one dominant cross-asset picture: a broad US dollar breakdown running alongside a global bond bear-steepener. Translation — the dollar is weakening across the board, but long-dated government bond yields keep climbing on inflation and deficit worries.
Dollar softness is the most widely endorsed view. Multiple research desks target EUR/USD toward 1.15–1.18 and see USD/JPY heading lower, with Bank of Japan rate hikes and Ministry of Finance intervention flagged as the catalysts. On long-end US Treasuries, the published consensus is that yields on the 10Y and 30Y still have room to rise as doubts about Fed credibility and fiscal discipline linger.
The disagreements are just as telling. On US equities, one camp of analysts holds a cyclical overweight, while a contrarian thread warns that peak AI capex and real yields now genuinely competing with stocks make the setup fragile. A notable contrarian view singles out the big US hyperscalers, arguing returns on incremental AI spending have collapsed from roughly 100% to the low teens at some firms.
Gold, per several recent notes, has further upside on dollar weakness and geopolitical risk.