Two forces are pulling markets in opposite directions, according to research published this week: a deliberate surge in long-end US yields and a coordinated US-Japan intervention reshaping the yen.
On rates, the published consensus is that 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields keep grinding higher — 30Y already at 19-year peaks — as Fed Chair Warsh lets the curve steepen, issuance stays heavy, and term premium rebuilds.
On the yen, most analysts covering the trade argue USD/JPY is headed lower on intervention plus a hawkish BoJ tilt, though horizons vary from weeks to years. A contrarian thread pushes back, arguing rate differentials still dominate near-term.
On AI infrastructure, one camp of researchers says the recent forced liquidation cleared crowded positioning and sets up a bullish rotation, with supply-constrained demand intact. Others flag deteriorating credit and price signals as a warning.
Oil splits by scenario: some see downside if Iran de-escalation holds, others see structural upside if Hormuz supply is disrupted.
One notable contrarian view frames Bitcoin as a leveraged equity bet, not a bond substitute — citing an equity beta near 2.