Today's cross-asset picture, per this week's published research: a bond-vigilante move is steepening the US curve while the dollar softens. Long-end Treasury yields (10Y, 30Y) are pushed higher by doubts about Fed Chair Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility, even as short-end yields ease — the biggest 2s10s jump in months.
On long US yields, the research consensus is unusually broad: multiple independent analysts see the 30Y going higher, reinforced by bearish technicals on T-Notes. On Brent crude, another wide consensus argues prices go up on Middle East escalation and Strait of Hormuz risk — one contrarian thread flags downside if the Strait reopens. On FX, several researchers see the dollar weaker post-FOMC, with EUR/USD upside a shared call.
Equities split genuinely: some analysts stay constructive on the S&P 500 citing strong earnings (Microsoft up, Meta down on capex concerns); others argue rising long yields dominate. The sharpest divide: one hawkish view calls for the Fed to reverse last year's cuts and hike, while another expects cuts before year-end.