An oil-fed shock is rippling through every asset class, and the published research is unusually aligned on where it leads next.
The broadest consensus across recent third-party research is on Brent crude pushing toward and past $100/bbl, driven by Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions plus US–Iran tensions. That chain — oil to inflation to central bank repricing to higher long-end yields — leads most rate-focused analysts to argue US 10-year Treasury yields stay under upward pressure. A September rate hike is now priced near 90%, and that pricing is broadly endorsed in the published views.
In FX, researchers widely expect the yen to weaken further against the dollar as the Bank of Japan lags global tightening and Japan's energy bill climbs. Analysts covering Asia flag the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and broader Asian FX as vulnerable for the same reasons.
Equities are bifurcating. One camp argues heavy-spending mega-cap tech names face tactical pressure as free cash flow deteriorates, while a contrarian structural thread favors Asian financials and reform beneficiaries — a tension worth watching if regional currencies keep sliding.