Today's dominant signal across markets: an oil-driven stagflation shock. Published research broadly reads Brent above $100/bbl on Middle East supply risk as a tax that lifts bond yields, strengthens the dollar, and splits equities between energy/value winners and AI-heavy tech losers.
The research consensus is crowded bullish on crude, with several notes flagging a $100–$120 range while conflict persists. Analysts also converge on US Treasury yields staying elevated — the 10Y is widely cited at its highest since early 2025 — with oil-driven inflation reviving Fed hike pricing and mechanically bidding the dollar. A near-consensus of researchers expects the ECB to hike in September, with the RBA and RBNZ seen following the same inflation logic.
Gold is where views split cleanly. One camp argues rising yields and a firmer dollar crowd out safe-haven flows near-term; a contrarian thread points to structural central-bank demand and a technical bottom. Some frame it by horizon: bearish tactically, bullish strategically if equities crack or US fiscal worries return.
On US tech, one group warns AI capex is burning free cash flow unsustainably; another remains bullish on a 12-month AI monetization thesis. A notable dissent on oil itself: a minority view argues high prices will force diplomatic de-escalation and drive a durable crude decline within weeks.