Today's cross-asset story is a geopolitical energy shock rippling through every market. Brent has broken to multi-year highs on US-Iran hostilities, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Black Sea infrastructure attacks — and the published research consensus is that this pushes bond yields up, the dollar higher, the yen weaker, and gold's safe-haven bid partially capped by rising real rates.
Oil bulls dominate: researchers across the board see Brent and WTI grinding higher on supply risk from Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea. That energy shock feeds fixed income — a wide swath of analysts expect US 10Y yields to keep climbing on oil pass-through, fiscal deficits, and rising risk premia. In FX, the consensus view is further USD/JPY upside as the Bank of Japan stays inert and energy costs pressure the yen.
Gold is the sharpest split, but it resolves to horizon: most published views are strategically bullish on geopolitical demand, while a tactical camp argues higher-for-longer rates cap the metal near-term. A contrarian thread even calls for Japanese yields to fall, arguing weak money supply growth will fade inflation — cutting against nearly everyone else.