Cross-asset markets are being pulled in two directions today: a geopolitics-driven energy shock in the near term, and a very different structural picture over the longer horizon.
Researchers broadly agree that the US–Iran escalation and Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure claim is lifting Brent crude, pushing bond yields up, and giving the dollar a tactical bid — while weighing on gold and other non-yielding metals. The published consensus sees US 10-year Treasury yields staying elevated on fiscal deficits and sticky inflation.
Zoom out and the tone flips. A well-populated camp of analysts holds a multi-year bullish view on gold, anchored in central bank buying (notably 20 straight months of PBoC accumulation) and hedging against financial repression. Some recently-published views frame the dollar as cyclically weaker once hawkish Fed pricing unwinds.
The sharpest split is USD/JPY: one camp sees a grind toward 162–165 on energy import pain, while a contrarian thread points below 160 as the BoJ normalises.
On single names, a pointed bear case argues SpaceX trades above 100× sales while burning $5B a quarter.