Macro research this week converged on a "higher-for-longer" rates regime clashing with still-bullish risk assets — and a late-week re-escalation in the Middle East that flipped the oil narrative.
On rates, multiple analysts argued markets are underpricing Fed hawkishness under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, with scenarios ranging from two more hikes this year to growth running at 2.5–3%. Several notes see US 10Y yields grinding higher, tied to fiscal strain, sticky inflation, and eroding trust in Treasuries as collateral.
Oil views shifted notably late in the week. Early commentary framed the US–Iran ceasefire and reopening Strait of Hormuz as a durable downside catalyst. By Saturday, with Iran declaring the Strait closed and fresh US strikes reported, the published consensus tilted back toward supply risk and a floor near $70 Brent.
Equity research stayed constructive — AI-driven earnings, buybacks, and semiconductor demand underpin the S&P 500 — though one thread flagged a possible 5–10% tactical pullback into autumn. Gold, Bitcoin, and copper were pitched as multi-year hedges against fiscal debasement.