Weak US payrolls have flipped the tape: softer dollar, fading Fed-hike odds, risk assets bid, and gold leading the defensive trade. But under the surface, published research is deeply split on how long the AI-led equity run has left.
Gold is the cleanest consensus call. Multiple research desks argue it grinds higher, pointing to easier real yields and steady central-bank buying. The published consensus also leans toward a weaker dollar near-term, with several analysts projecting EUR/USD toward 1.17–1.18 by year-end and USD/JPY drifting lower as the US–Japan rate gap narrows and BoJ intervention risk lingers. On oil, one camp of analysts sees near-term downside from Hormuz reopening and inventory releases, while a contrarian view targets Brent near $80 by year-end on tight stocks.
The real fight is US tech. Some strategists stay constructively bullish on the S&P 500 and semis into H2. Others warn the Magnificent 7 are crowded and stretched, drawing parallels to the 2000 Nasdaq. A sharper thread frames the next two months as potentially the most treacherous for risk assets this half.