Weekly macro recap: a soft US jobs print reshaped the rates and FX picture, but researchers are split on where risk assets go next.
The dominant read early in the week: weaker payrolls and less-hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh pulled Treasury yields and the dollar lower, with analysts calling for further EUR/USD gains (one forecast pinned 1.18 by end-2026) and a supported gold tape. A separate thread flagged Brent as underpriced versus tight physical inventories, with an $80 year-end target floated.
Equities drew the sharpest disagreement. Several notes warned of a fall "bear-market-like correction" in the S&P 500, stretched semiconductor positioning vulnerable to margin-call unwinds, and cracks in the crowded tech trade. A contrasting view argued mega-cap growth is now oversold into a low earnings bar.
On the yen, most research still sees structural weakness given negative real rates, though some expect faster BOJ hikes to bite. Australian housing calls turned more bearish, with Sydney prices seen down ~8% in 2026.
Gold remains a consensus long-term hedge despite one dissenting call for lower prices on real-yield pressure.