Markets are stress-testing the "strong dollar, higher-for-longer" regime — not abandoning it. That's the dominant thread running through this week's published research.
Where the research consensus lines up: most analysts still lean long the US dollar on Fed hawkishness and relative US growth, though a softer payrolls print has given short-term dollar bears a credible opening. Multiple fixed-income desks expect US yields to stay elevated or drift higher. Oil bears are crowded too — researchers broadly expect Brent to soften as Strait of Hormuz flows normalise and geopolitical risk premia fade. On wheat, a separate camp of analysts sees upside from supply shocks, El Niño, and rumoured China buying.
Where views split sharply: US mega-cap AI and hyperscaler names. One camp argues 6–12 month upside remains intact; a contrarian thread flags crowded positioning and deteriorating fundamentals. USD/JPY is similarly divided, with cyclical targets as high as 165 sitting alongside warnings of sharp intervention-driven yen strength.
One notable tail risk: some recently-published work argues speculative crude positioning is so net-short that a squeeze could push Brent $6–$15/bbl higher — even if the fundamental case stays bearish.