The unwind of the Iran risk premium is now rippling through every asset class at once. With Hormuz reopening and Brent down more than 20% from its peak, cheaper oil is softening inflation, challenging the dollar bull case, pressuring gold, and reframing the debate around AI capex sustainability.
Where the published research consensus lines up: a weaker yen against the dollar, driven by slow Bank of Japan normalisation and wide rate differentials; near-term downside in crude as Hormuz supply normalises; tactical weakness in gold as the safe-haven bid fades; and modest upside in US equities carried by earnings, not multiples.
Where researchers split hardest: the US 10-year yield. One camp argues yields grind higher on fiscal supply, sticky inflation, and a resilient jobs market. A contrarian thread sees yields falling as inflation cools and rate-cut hopes return. Same horizon, opposite regimes.
One notably contrarian view argues AI adoption is actually bond-bullish — long-dated real yields have tended to fall around major AI releases as precautionary savings rise. That cuts directly against the AI-supercycle-lifts-neutral-rates story.