Macro research this week converged on one pivot point: the Strait of Hormuz. Whether it reopens shapes nearly every other call.
On oil, most analysts argued Brent has room to fall toward the $70s — even into the $60s — if a US-Iran deal reopens the Strait, with demand destruction also flagged as a headwind. A minority view cautioned that inventory tightness and logistics could keep crude sticky in the $80–90 zone, which would in turn keep core inflation and front-end yields elevated.
Equities drew the most caution of the week. Several strategists flagged late-cycle froth, expensive valuations, heavy AI-related capex, and a wave of new equity issuance — with calls ranging from a modest 4% pullback to warnings of a much deeper cyclical drawdown. Mega-cap tech was singled out for being punished over capex discipline.
Elsewhere: research expects the BOJ to hike to 1.00%, but sees USD/JPY vulnerable above 160 and ripe for intervention. Lagarde delivered a hawkish first ECB hike since 2011. Gold views split between near-term weakness and a longer-run supercycle bid.