AI infrastructure carried risk assets again this week, but published research grew noticeably more cautious on how far the tech rally can run.
Early in the week, analysts framed the S&P 500's strength as rational: broad Q1 earnings beats, a $50bn+ AI server backlog at Dell, and a semiconductor cycle with orders booked into 2027. One view argued the market has shifted from momentum-driven to earnings-driven — still positive, but with thinner returns and more volatility ahead.
By late week, the consensus tilted more defensive. Multiple strands of research flagged nine straight weekly gains, parabolic moves in chips and AI names tied to options-driven squeezes, and power/grid bottlenecks capping the AI build-out. A 5–10% summer correction was floated, with rotation into Staples and Utilities.
Elsewhere: Euro area and UK inflation forecasts were cut on softer gas prices; oil drifted lower as Gulf ceasefire talks dragged; BOJ normalization stayed on track; and a structural bull case built for copper, rare earths, gold and the US dollar amid real-asset demand.