Copper may be set up for a sharp year-end slide, according to a bearish view circulating in recently published commodities research.
The argument: copper has broken key technical support near $6.40 per pound, and its 50-week correlation with the S&P 500 is now the highest on record. That tight link means any meaningful stock market pullback would likely drag copper down with it — removing what has historically been a diversification cushion.
Supply-side signals reinforce the caution, these analysts note. US exchange inventories are running roughly 1,200% above their five-year average, pointing to abundant physical metal. Open interest in copper futures also tends to seasonally weaken in November, thinning out market participation.
Putting it together, this strand of research sees liquidation only in its early innings and anticipates a cascade lower into year-end. It's a contrarian call against the broader "electrification demand" narrative that has supported copper — and worth watching as a stress indicator for risk assets more broadly.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Copper: speculators (managed money) are net long, 10.6% of open interest. That is the smallest net long in a year (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 5,685 contracts on the week.
• Priced in gold (10 Nov 2026): Copper $6.36/lb, 649 lb of copper per oz of gold: cheaper than on 4% of days over 2 years, 77% over 10. Common 2-year range at today's gold: $5.37–$5.61/lb.
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/metals