Copper looks tightly supplied, and the published research consensus this week leans higher on prices.
One camp of analysts argues copper has further upside into next year even though Chinese consumption fell 8% year-on-year in September. The reasoning: Shanghai premiums just hit a record, and US warehouse financing trades are pulling spare metal into North America, leaving the physical market tight. Researchers also point to structural demand from power grids, data centers and EVs, with governments increasingly treating critical metals as a national security concern.
A separate strand of recent analysis makes a similar case from a different angle: the recent price pullback has been shallow, no key technical support has broken, and China is paying up to secure material. These analysts note that if the US removes copper tariffs, some stranded metal could be released, but not enough to loosen the market. They also argue that AI data center build-out should keep underpinning prices, without specifying a time horizon.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Copper: speculators (managed money) are net long, 10.6% of open interest. That is the smallest net long in a year (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 5,685 contracts on the week.
• Priced in gold (11 Nov 2026): Copper $6.35/lb, 639 lb of copper per oz of gold: cheaper than on 4% of days over 2 years, 76% over 10. Common 2-year range at today's gold: $5.27–$5.52/lb.
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/metals