The defining macro story today is the Strait of Hormuz crisis and how it's reshaping oil, inflation, and central bank policy worldwide.
Researchers across the board point to the US-Iran confrontation — naval escorts, Iranian retaliatory strikes, and near-empty shipping lanes through the strait — as the trigger for Brent crude trading anywhere from $108 to $126. Gasoline prices have jumped 33–40% since the conflict began, one of the biggest hits to household disposable income across major economies in years.
The consensus view is that near-term rate cuts are off the table almost everywhere. The Fed held in May with unusually sharp internal dissent. The ECB and Bank of England are now hinting at hikes rather than cuts, with Governor Bailey warning of "forceful" tightening if Brent averages $127. The RBA is expected to hike to 4.85% by August, and the BoJ is signaling a summer move amid stagflation risk. New Zealand looks like the lone dovish outlier.
A contrarian camp sees diplomacy prevailing, which would send WTI back toward $70–$75. But overnight reporting of fresh Iranian strikes on US, South Korean, and UAE vessels suggests escalation, not resolution.
Watch this week: US payrolls Friday, the ECB decision (a live 25bp hike), and any movement on Hormuz shipping.