What research expects
One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 15 views published between 25 Sep 2026 and 21 Oct 2026. Views about later meetings are not counted.
The debate
Research points firmly to a hold at the Bank of Japan's 30 October meeting. Houses that address timing nearly all put the next hike in December or later, and market pricing cited in the notes shows only a small chance of an October move. The bank raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% in September.
The case for waiting rests on rhythm and caution. Researchers note the bank appears to prefer hiking about every three months, and reports say officials resist back-to-back increases. Notes on the bank's own meeting summaries describe a split board, with some members worried about weak consumption and the cumulative effect of past hikes.
The case for more tightening is strong, just not yet. Researchers point to underlying inflation near 2%, a strong business survey, tight labour markets and a weak yen. Many expect two more hikes by the end of the first quarter of 2027, with a terminal rate near 2.5% in 2028. A few houses see January as a possible alternative to December.
Officials lean hawkish without signalling timing. A voting board member said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates, and minutes say continued hikes are appropriate. No official has pointed to October. The meeting also brings new quarterly forecasts.
What to watch
- Whether the statement or Governor Ueda's press conference gives any hint of a December move.
- Whether the board is unanimous, or whether any members dissent in favour of a hike or against holding.
- The new quarterly inflation and growth projections, especially any sign that underlying inflation is judged to have reached 2%.
- How the yen reacts near the 158-160 range, given intervention risk and the lack of a hike.
What BoJ officials have said
- 15 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.3Koeda Junko
Given considerable upside risks to prices and still accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate, adjusting it in a timely manner.
inflationpolicy rateneutral ratebalance sheetaiSpeech by Board Member KOEDA in Kumamoto (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) → - 15 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0KOEDA Junko
The Bank should adjust the policy interest rate in a timely manner with an eye on economic and price conditions, keeping in mind the estimated neutral rate range; given considerable upside price risks and accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy rate.
inflationpolicy rateneutral ratebalance sheetgeopolitical riskEconomic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechNeutral 0.0Shinichi Uchida
The Bank will continue to carefully examine economic and financial indicators to grasp the impact of AI adoption, aiming for balanced decisions that neither under- nor overestimate AI's effects.
aiproductivitylabour marketfinancial conditionsOpening Remarks by Deputy Governor UCHIDA at the ECONDAT 2026 Fall Meeting (AI, Big Data, and Monetary Policy) → - 30 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.3Bank of Japan
With underlying CPI inflation approaching 2% and financial conditions accommodative, it is appropriate for the Bank to continue raising the policy interest rate and adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation.
inflationpolicy rateneutral rateenergyfxSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 17 and 18, 2026 → - 27 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +0.5Bank of Japan
Members agreed core CPI is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2%, while financial conditions remain accommodative even after the rate hikes.
inflationenergywagesfinancial conditionsartificial intelligenceMinutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31, 2026 →