US stocks are split after the post-midterm, AI-led selloff — with published research lining up on both sides.
The bullish camp frames it as a positioning clean-up. Researchers argue AI earnings remain strong and that political friction around data centers means delay, not cancellation. Others point to forward price-to-earnings ratios near the last three major market lows and washed-out sentiment, with one widely-cited view calling the correction closer to its end at 18x forward earnings and favoring adding on weakness.
Bearish analysts flag broken technical levels — the S&P's 200-day average near 7,300, support near 7,000, and the Nasdaq 100 slipping below key thresholds. A contrarian thread highlights stretched valuations, crowded AI exposure, risk of earnings estimate cuts, and regulatory overhang on the data-center build-out.
A common thread across both camps: rotation out of tech into defensives, industrials, cyclicals, healthcare and financials, with some published views also constructive on small caps.
On Nvidia, research is divided — some see a buying opportunity, others flag key-man, export-control and regulatory risk.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Speculators (leveraged funds) are net long Nasdaq-100 (E-mini) and net short S&P 500 (E-mini) and Russell 2000 (E-mini). Nasdaq-100 (E-mini) is at the crowded-long extreme (COT index 93: the largest net long in a year); S&P 500 (E-mini) (51) and Russell 2000 (E-mini) (57) are mid-range.