US equity research is split down the middle right now — and both sides are making loud, specific calls.
On the bullish side, one camp of analysts expects S&P 500 companies to beat Q2 estimates by around 5%, with 28% year-on-year earnings growth led by semiconductors, energy, and materials. Others point to $55 trillion added to US household net worth over five years and an ongoing AI capex boom as reasons the cycle keeps running. Under-owned large-cap tech, they argue, could fuel further short-covering rallies.
The bearish camp counters that AI spending echoes dot-com-era malinvestment, tech concentration in the index is dangerous, consumer debt stress is peaking, and a 40–60% drawdown is plausible. A contrarian thread of recent research sees a near-term short squeeze giving way to a later crash.
Where researchers converge: a tactical rotation into Healthcare, Financials, mid-caps, and value over the broad index. Where they clash hardest: semiconductors, and whether the S&P is a buy or an underweight over the next 6–12 months.