US equity research is split down the middle right now, with no clean consensus on where the S&P 500 goes next.
The bullish camp leans on earnings. Several published notes highlight roughly 24% operating earnings growth and an 88% beat rate this season, led by banks and cyclicals. One line of research argues corporate profits will keep outpacing the broader economy until the next recession, helped by contained labor costs and lower tax rates. Others see near-term upside on stabilizing macro conditions.
The bearish camp is louder on speculation. A contrarian thread of recent research flags record single-stock call option activity and fast-rising margin debt — conditions that preceded major peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2021. Some analysts draw an explicit parallel to the dot-com bubble and expect further Nasdaq weakness. Others warn that any signal of AI capex cuts from the big cloud players could trigger a broad, high-correlation sell-off.
Same index, same horizon, opposite calls. The crux: is AI a durable earnings driver or a bubble?