US equities enter earnings season with the bull case still dominant — but bubble warnings are growing louder.
Much of the week's published research stayed constructive: institutional equity allocations remain near 20-year highs, buybacks are set to resume, and analysts argue the rally is now backed by real earnings rather than just multiple expansion. Bullish notes flagged the S&P 500 pressing toward new highs on an ascending triangle, memory semis (Micron, SK Hynix) benefiting from AI-driven shortages seen persisting into 2027–28, and Nvidia framed as a decade-long compounder. Meta, Caterpillar, and alternative asset managers/BDCs also drew positive mentions on yield and momentum.
The contrarian thread was notable, though. Multiple researchers likened current AI enthusiasm to the dot-com era, with one forecasting a possible 30–50% cyclical bear market and another flagging a 5–10% tactical pullback into August/September around midterm positioning. Equal-weight S&P exposure was floated as a hedge against concentration risk.
Less loved: Shake Shack, Coinbase, and non-profitable small caps.