Published research this week leans strongly bullish on US equities, though a vocal minority is bracing for a correction.
The bull case, according to the prevailing research consensus, rests on earnings momentum rather than stretched multiples: strong analyst revisions, a solid Q2 setup, and a Fed unlikely to surprise hawkishly. The dominant macro catalyst cited across recent notes is the AI capex supercycle — sustained hyperscaler spending on data centers, memory, and GPUs seen as a structural tailwind for tech earnings into 2025–26. One camp adds a "Goldilocks" overlay of moderate growth and inflation slightly above target. Flow data referenced in recent research shows institutional equity allocations near 20-year highs.
Sub-splits: broad bullishness on AI-linked chipmakers and memory names through 2027–28. Small caps favored, but with a quality tilt — profitable names only. A contrarian thread warns of record valuations and a possible 30–50% cyclical bear market over one to four years.
Real disagreements: Nvidia (a sell call against the AI bull consensus), Tesla (structural bear vs robotics/optionality bull), and Mag 7 concentration risk.